Geneva: Global merchandise trade surpassed expectations in the first half of 2025, fueled by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of impending tariff hikes, and robust trade across the globe. WTO economists have consequently raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%, up from the 0.9% projection in August. However, they have also lowered the 2026 projection to 0.5% from 1.8%. Global services exports growth is anticipated to decelerate from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026.
According to Emirates News Agency, the updated “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report released on 7 October by WTO economists provides new analysis on the build-up in inventories in 2025 and the strong trade in artificial intelligence-related goods such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment. They caution that trade growth may slow in 2026 due to the cooling global economy and the introduction of new tariffs.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted, “Countries’ measured response to tariff changes, the growth potential of AI, and increased trade among the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped mitigate trade setbacks in 2025.” She noted that South-South trade grew by 8% year-on-year, in value terms, in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for global trade overall. South-South trade excluding China is growing even faster, with an increase of approximately 9%.
Okonjo-Iweala also emphasized the importance of the rules-based multilateral trading system in providing stability, stating, “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option. Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere.”
The volume of world merchandise trade, measured by the average of exports and imports, grew 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. In current US dollar terms, the value of world merchandise trade increased by 6% year-on-year in the first six months of 2025, following a 2% rise in 2024.
AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, accounted for nearly half of the overall trade expansion in the first half of the year, rising 20% year-on-year in value terms. Trade growth spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon and specialty gases to devices powering cloud platforms and AI applications. Asia’s strong export performance in AI-related products aligned with the global surge in investment in this sector.
Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export volume growth in 2025, with modest performances anticipated from South and Central America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East, while Europe will likely see slower growth. North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) face declining exports. Least-developed countries (LDCs) are expected to show robust export gains but face weakening trends ahead. On the import side, Africa and LDCs are set to experience the fastest growth, contrasting with a contraction in North America. In 2026, only North America, Europe, and CIS will post an improvement in export performance, while all regions will record weaker import performance.