Warsaw: A new joint study from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland's National Research Institute (NASK) found that 1 in 4 jobs worldwide is potentially exposed to generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) - but that transformation, not replacement, is the most likely outcome.
According to Emirates News Agency, the report, launched on 20th May, and titled 'Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure', introduces the most detailed global assessment to date of how GenAI may reshape the world of work. The index provides a unique and nuanced snapshot of how AI could transform occupations and employment across countries, by combining nearly 30,000 occupational tasks with expert validation, AI-assisted scoring, and ILO harmonised micro data.
Pawel Gmyrek, ILO Senior Researcher and lead author of the study, emphasized, 'We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs. By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we've created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision." The report's key findings include a new 'exposure gradients', which cluster occupations according to their level of exposure to Generative AI, helping policymakers distinguish between jobs at high risk of full automation and those more likely to evolve through task transformation.
The study indicates that 25 percent of global employment falls within occupations potentially exposed to GenAI, with higher shares in high-income countries (34 percent). Exposure among women continues to be significantly higher, with jobs at the highest risk of automation making up 9.6 percent of female employment in high-income countries, compared to 3.5 percent among men. Clerical jobs face the highest exposure due to GenAI's theoretical ability to automate many of their tasks. However, the expanding abilities of GenAI result in increased exposure for some highly digitized cognitive jobs in media, software, and finance-related occupations.
Full job automation remains limited, as many tasks, though done more efficiently, still require human involvement. The study highlights the potentially divergent paths for occupations accustomed to rapid digital transformations, such as software developers, and those where limited digital skills might have more negative effects. Policies guiding digital transitions will be a leading factor in determining the extent to which workers may be retained in occupations transforming due to AI, and how such transformation affects job quality.
Marek Troszynski, Senior Expert at NASK and one of the co-authors of the new paper, noted, 'This index helps identify where GenAI is likely to have the biggest impact, so countries can better prepare and protect workers. Our next step is to apply this new index to detailed labour force data from Poland." The ILO-NASK study emphasized that the figures reflect potential exposure, not actual job losses. Technological constraints, infrastructure gaps, and skill shortages mean that implementation will differ widely by country and sector. Crucially, the authors stress that GenAI's effect is more likely to transform jobs than eliminate them.
The report calls on governments, employers, and workers' organizations to engage in social dialogue and shape proactive, inclusive strategies that can enhance productivity and job quality, especially in exposed sectors.