Abu Dhabi: Liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) is projected to grow significantly over the coming years, according to the latest data from OPEC. The supply is expected to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 to average 54.0 mb/d, with a further rise to 54.8 mb/d in 2026.
According to Emirates News Agency, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May highlights that the OECD countries (excluding Mexico) are expected to contribute substantially to this growth. The US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway are anticipated to drive an increase of 0.5 mb/d year-on-year in 2025. Specifically, US crude oil and condensate production is projected to expand by 130 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), with natural gas liquids (NGLs) and biofuels adding around 200 tb/d.
Canadian oil production, particularly from oil sands, is forecast to grow by about 120 tb/d in 2025. Additionally, North Sea production is expected to see a year-on-year increase of approximately 50 tb/d. The non-OECD countries, excluding those in the DoC, are also anticipated to contribute to this rise, with an output increase of around 260 tb/d, driven mainly by Latin America's offshore developments and Argentina's tight oil production.
The report also notes that in 2024, non-DoC liquids supply had already seen an increase of 1.3 mb/d to average 53.2 mb/d. The US was a major contributor, with a 0.8 mb/d year-on-year rise, largely due to non-conventional NGLs and tight oil from the Permian Basin. Canadian production rose by about 0.25 mb/d, supported by oil sand expansions.
Looking ahead to 2026, OPEC forecasts a further 0.8 mb/d growth in non-DoC liquids supply to reach 54.8 mb/d. The OECD production, excluding Mexico, is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d. The US and Canada are forecast to see respective growths of around 280 tb/d and 110 tb/d, with US NGLs production alone anticipated to rise by 190 tb/d, driven by strong natural gas demand.
Latin America is expected to remain a key player in non-OECD production growth, contributing more than 95% of the region's output increase in 2026. However, these projections face potential uncertainties due to ongoing macroeconomic developments globally.